Brown should have a role, most likely on early downs and at the goal-line, which would sink Gaskins chances of living up to his ADP. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. John Riggins 19. On top of these issues, the Texans added Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram II, and Philip Lindsay to compete for touches. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. Eric Dickerson 8. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. But regardless of quarterback, Kamara is unlikely to return to his 80 reception ways. WHO ARE THE MOST OVERRATED FANTASY FOOTBALL RUNNING BACKS? His week one status is in doubt, and there are reports he may not be ready for 12-15 touch workloads until October. Barring an injury to Chubb, Hunt will drive you crazy trying to figure out when to start him as anything other than a flex option. His current draft price is almost his upside. J.K. McKissic, Washington | Consensus Rankings RB47 | Consensus Projections RB45. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. While he can certainly put up some strong fantasy weeks, the savvier move would be to wait for the younger backs later in the draft. Ryan Hester: If Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay, no Green Bay players will see their output exceed their price tag. The notorious "Frankenstein" graphic did him no favors. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. Victoria Geary: Sanders has talent and breakaway ability, but he may not garner a large enough workload to be worth his ADP this season. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Mostert is now 29 years old and has the highest draft position of anyone in this stable of capable running backs. Theyre going to be one of the worst teams in NFL History. He made general managers look like geniuses with more than 2,000 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 2016. 15 receptions, 111 yards, less than a TD per year. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. Brady is known for being the only quarterback in history to win 7 Super Bowls, and is often considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Jim Brown Jim Brown spent a little less than a decade playing for the Cleveland Browns between 1957 and 1965, but that was enough time to prove he's likely the greatest running back to ever play the game and one of the greatest NFL players of all time. No thanks. Drafting Jacobs around this price is drafting him at his ceiling -- perhaps even above it. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. And in fact, some managers are drafting him to be in their fantasy starting lineups in Week 1. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs, or one of them would have to get injured to allow the other to see an increased workload. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. Single Compared to Jim Brown (5.2 YPC), Larry Csonka (4.3 YPC), and Earl Campbell (4.3 YPC). This is more important for Barkley than most backs because he relies on his immense gifts more than most backs. Overrated Sleepers Running Backs Values Overrated Sleepers The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. 9 Tim Brown Via nfl.com I was one of many who publicly voiced outrage over the fact that Tim Brown had to wait until 2015 get his Hall of Fame honor. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. Single The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. And ultimately, he was targeted by Miami ahead of an early-round draft pick when he finally hit unrestricted free agency. The only reason Johnson had fantasy value last year was a superhuman effort from Deshaun Watson to move the offense and produce points. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. The investment in veteran wideout Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace almost cements Dobbinss capped upside in the passing game. The Five Most Overrated Fantasy Football Running Backs in 2019. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. Andrew Davenport: I've had ample opportunities to draft Gaskin and just haven't been able to do it. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB11. With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. Search my work, about me, and maybe -if I ever get around to it - my blog. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. Pat Fitzmaurice: First, a hat tip: For a guy who was a nonfactor in Purdue's offense for four years and was mostly a special-teamer in his first four NFL seasons, Mostert turned out to be a pretty good running back. Unless his ADP falls a bit, he's a pass where he's being drafted right now. Ty Johnson has strong athleticism and played over Carter in the first week of the preseason, and La'Mical Perine has a similar profile to Carter. Draft capital is not a predictor of talent as much as a predictor of opportunity. Jason Wood: Jacobs was the only projected Raiders offensive starter to play in the Hall of Fame game, which should be a blaring red flag for how much new head coach Josh McDaniels values Jacobs as a centerpiece. Cam Akers, LA Rams | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB13. He doesnt have that much of a skill set difference with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed either. He's a workout warrior - I get that, but whether or not he recovers immediately from this injury is yet to be seen, and because there is a doubt, he's someone I am avoiding at nearly all costs. They did not pick up his fifth-year option and took Zamir White in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Overrated David Boston -- WR, 1999-02 Boston was a former first-round pick by the Cardinals who had an epic Pro Bowl /All-Pro season in 2001 when he caught 98 passes for nearly 1,600 yards and. Crimson Tide skill players have been pretty good coming into the NFL recently, and Robinson's early start to camp has been generating buzz. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Color me skeptical Sanders has a new ceiling for receiving production with Scott and Gainwell passing game-centric options, and Howard could be a goal-line option. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders to be an every-down back. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. 1 cornerstone. His ADP has been climbing recently, and while his price says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, he's still being overvalued at his current price. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB21. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. This was largely in line with his previous year's 10.7 per game which allowed him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. Andy Hicks: When looking at the Falcons backfield, it is clear there is no one currently there to challenge Mike Davis to start the season. Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. The role we envisioned for Johnson is already in question. Dave Kluge: The 49ers drafted Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell and signed free agent Wayne Gallman. 54 touchdowns. There's too much risk to draft him as an ever-week starter. Jordan McNamara: The news on Saquon Barkley does not reassure me. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. When I was comparing Bettis stats to the the 3 RBs I mentioned above, I saw that Bettis was highly overrated. However, the floor is lower than the surrounding running backs in cost. We've seen J.D. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). . So what's the concern? These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Then we have the Taysom Hill conundrum. But, man, there are all sorts of asterisks to add to that description. 15 Best Running Backs of All-Time; Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. At 5-foot-6 and 191 pounds, Cohen is too small and one-dimensional to be used as a lead back even if David Montgomery gets hurt. Malcolm Brown has also been an underrated commodity for some time now and gets a shot to compete with Gaskin for significant playing time. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. The final reason why Jerome Bettis is the most overrated RB of all time is because of the offensive line he ran behind. Jamaal Williams is a fine receiver, route runner, and red-zone back who will limit Swift's upside to a low-end fantasy RB2, at best. At cost, D'Andre Swift and others are better combinations of floor and ceiling. Then, two players were listed as being the most overrated compared to their draft projection. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB22. Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. Weve seen flashes of Raheem Mostert over the last couple of years feasting in this offense, but its sporadic and challenging to predict. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why. He rewarded those believers with an RB18 PPG season. At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. It looked like Williams would consolidate the lead role in the offseason. This is a major factor to any expectation that Robinson is fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the very early weeks in the season. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. Bettis was also a nonfactor in the passing game. Add in the fact that offense is unlikely to provide as many goal-line chances as the other high-end RB1s, and Kamara has plenty of factors going against him. I just see way too much downside to take a risk on lightning striking twice. The Commanders made it a priority of theirs to bring back J.D. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB27 | Consensus Projections RB31. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. Now, these guys are treated with all the respect of disposable diapers. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. Mckissic, and there was talk of rookie Brian Robinson Jr taking on the short yardage work. The problem is it never really felt like we stopped moving Edmonds up the board even after the signing of James Conner. What follows are some of the most notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2022 NFL draft, along with two overrated back based on this model: ESPN + Montgomery hasn't turned a corner in his career arc. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. History and time have helped make Perry one of the most overrated defensive players of all time. . Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. Jonathan Morris: As soon as Josh McDaniels came into the picture as the new head coach of the Raiders, my valuation of Jacobs immediately went down. Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. Walter Payton 5. This was largely in line with his previous year's number of 10.7 per game, allowing him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. Most Overrated NFL Players of All Time by Team By Paul Ladewski, updated on September 10, 2021 Matt York / AP Photo Don't you just love it that sports media are so quick to hype athletes as the biggest and the best. Also, Jalen Hurts is poised to siphon a few short-range scores from the running back position. Earl Campbell 9. Then as soon as they go south, we pile on like kids in a mosh pit? These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. Pittsburghs front five looks nothing like last years group. By the end of the year, that may change, but Etienne will be a change-of-pace and gadget player who might earn flex value this year until then. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. Murray scored 11 rushing touchdowns in 9 different games in 2020. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. But you do have to attribute some of his success to his top 10 run blocking. Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB28 | Consensus Projections RB29. Overall: 98 and 96. But after he sat a game due to injury, the Bears' lead runner came out hot after their bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. However, I would ask - where is the upside to tilt a league here? Gaskin's current draft position is indicative of him being the top back in Miami, and it's not a foregone conclusion that he is. History has shown us that Harris's ADP will likely move into Round 2 or 3 as the next few months pass. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. The Top Ten. His primary use has been as an excellent pass-catching back. Chase Edmonds, Arizona | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB23. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). If you're optimistic about the Lions running game, take Williams at a deep discount from Swift's highly aspirational price tag. Derrick Henry, Tennessee | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB4. The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. Although the rookie saw an uptick in usage throughout his first season, he managed to eclipse 66% of his teams snaps just once. That, plus the uncertainty of Edmond's role, leaves me more concerned than excited. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. Not to mention I expect this offense to throw the ball a lot more than last year due to the addition of Russell Wilson and new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. His ADP says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, but he's still being overvalued at his current price. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. Dillon is maturing as a receiver and might be used in that facet of the game despite his size profile suggesting hes a bruiser. 5 / 30. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Sigmund Bloom: Not that the Texans offense was anything you wanted to go near in fantasy drafts in the first place, but Johnson's ADP needs to adjust by multiple rounds to the news that he will be sharing the backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II and no longer in the lead back role. Cohen is not even a projected injury-away auto-start fantasy option heading into training camp. Jeff Haseley: Chase Edmonds scored in five different games in 2020, exceeding eight carries in a game only twice in 15 qualifying games. Jason Wood: Sometimes fate aligns, and that's what happened for Mike Davis last year in Carolina. We've seen running backs repeatedly return from severe knee injuries; very seldom do they return the following year and have a memorable fantasy season. 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. Jan 26 . Projections, Get The Most Out Of Your Adrian Peterson 10. 24 Overrated RBs. And Hill is only touchable due to the cheat code rushing factor for quarterbacks. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. Andrew Davenport: Fantasy managers are drafting Carter as though he is the unquestioned starter. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB28. Preseason may help a little. In 2019, his last full season, Cohen averaged 5.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target -- terrible numbers for a third-down back. Barkley is a workhorse. Raheem Mostert, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings RB31 | Consensus Projections RB35. While 3,000 hits is nothing to scoff at, his place as an. It also must be remembered his journey through the NFL before that. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. The team didn't improve a problem defensive line. The more problematic issue is that the Texans are a train wreck. He feasted on unsustainable opportunities and a soft schedule. That makes me want to be high on Josh Jacobs, but unfortunately, all reports point to a backfield by committee. Andrew Davenport: Fournette's production in the playoffs was artificially inflated by the injury to Ronald Jones II, and part of Fournette's regular-season fantasy production last year was due to his pass-catching role. McKissic, one the league's better pass-catching backs. I understand the upside, but I don't want to take a huge miss if I'm drafting in Week 1. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB14 | Consensus Projections RB10. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. 1. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Jim Brown 2. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams.